Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Can a Team with No Power Win a World Series?


A familiar sight for Cubs fans.

The Chicago Cubs hit nine home runs in April.

Nine.

That’s abysmal. Not unexpected—the team’s leading power hitters coming into the season were the decrepit Alfonso Soriano (who contributed no homers and a grand total of two extra-base hits in April)  and a 29-year-old rookie, after all—but abysmal nevertheless.

But does a lack of power necessarily preclude a team from winning? After all, the Washington Nationals had the worst slugging percentage in baseball (.328) and hit only 13 home runs in April, yet they finished the month in first place in the National League East with a 14-8 record and a +15 run differential.

From this, one can infer that the Nationals have had brilliant pitching, and that is, in fact, the case. But can a team with an offense as anemic as the Nationals’ or the Cubs’ actually win a championship? Obviously, pitching is important, but has amazing pitching ever overcome an intrinsic lack of pop? Well, yes—but it’s fairly unusual.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

The Rams and the 2012 NFL Draft

I've said it before, I am a Miami Dolphins fan, but I've also lamented that it's difficult to follow a team that isn't the Patriots, Saints, or Giants from 1,200 miles away.  So, I like to follow the entirety of the NFL, and I immerse myself in local sports just about every day. By virtue of living in St. Louis, I get a lot of information about the St. Louis Rams.  The talk around here, of course, is centered around what the Rams will be doing in this weekend's NFL Draft, most notably with their 6th overall pick tomorrow night.

The Rams have a litany of glaring needs.  I could list them here, but I think that it's a better use of my time and yours to talk about what they don't need.  The Rams still believe in their quarterback Sam Bradford, despite a dismal injury-filled second season, and I find it hard to disagree with the team at this point.  Steven Jackson is the captain and the star of the team, though he's beyond the most productive years of a typical NFL running back and a change of pace back to help Jackson rest more frequently might be useful.   Defensive end Chris Long has made strides every year of his young career and is on the verge of becoming a star.  Similarly, linebacker James Laurinaitis is a key component to the defense and a star on the rise.  The Rams also addressed the need of filling out a disappointing defensive backfield by signing free agent corner Cortland Finnegan.

But that's about it for the positions the Rams will likely not be looking to improve before the beginning of the 2012 regular season.  The team is desperate for play makers on offense, particularly wide receivers and tight ends that Bradford can throw to.  The performance of the offensive line, despite the presence of recent high draft picks Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold, has to be improved as well.  Long could use another pass rushing threat on the other side of the defensive line, and Laurinaitis can't be the only effective linebacker if the Rams' defense is going to be effective.  And just the same, the defensive backfield needs more than Finnegan.

So, where do the Rams go with the #6 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft?  The overriding feeling I have is that if they don't get a player that can contribute significant performance in 2012 and beyond after earning every bit of the #2 pick and then trading it, the team will be in a holding pattern once again and not take a necessary and significant step forward for yet another year.

Most talk in this area has focused on the team addressing the black hole at the wide receiver position, and the player most people crave is Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon.  But there's also talk of Blackmon being coveted by the Minnesota Vikings at #3 and the Cleveland Browns at #4, so if Blackmon isn't available for the Rams, where do they go with the #6 pick?  The possibility remains that they could trade the pick if they don't like the remaining options at that slot, but the further they go, the less likely they get a player than can be a star to help for the coming year and beyond.  If wide receiver is still the Rams' first priority, they could target Notre Dame's Michael Floyd, whom some experts rate at better than Blackmon.

The Rams could use LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, but him slipping past the Buccaneers to the Rams isn't likely.  Alabama running back Trent Richardson would be a benefit to Steven Jackson and his longevity, and he would be the dynamic offensive weapon the Rams could use.  But Richardson is also not likely to fall to #6 and he does nothing to solve a high priority, immediate need of the Rams.  USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil is an option for the Rams, but they've already invested high draft picks, tons of money, and roster space to the offensive line; to me, throwing more resources at the position with already rostered players that could help would be inadvisable.

Assuming that Andrew Luck goes to the Colts, Robert Griffin to Washington (both of which is almost a certainty), and Claiborne, Kalil, and Richardson are off the board, my expectation is that Blackmon is the way the Rams use their first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, and if he's not available the team could then turn to a just as talented wide receiver in Michael Floyd.  Then, the next challenge for the Rams is to figure out how to use the #33 and #39 picks.

By the way, as a Dolphin's fan, I have also perked up when NFL Draft talk comes around to the Dolphins.  It seems the Dolphins have their mind set on Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill.  Miami needs a long-term plan at QB for sure, but Tannehill, a former wide receiver, is a developmental work-in-progress.  I just wish there would be a more immediate solution for the Dolphins, but without Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin in play, the best option remains Tannehill.

Matheny's first incident of poor judgment

I'm not a fan who gets overly worked up by officiating and how it might negatively affect the outcome of a game.  One of the best parts of baseball that distinguishes it from the rest of sports is the human element and how umpires can see a call, for better or worse. They can only do their best with a real-time view of the game; they don't have the benefit of instant replay (yet).  Umpires get the call right the overwhelming majority of the time, and a very small handful of the total calls during high profile moments of a game unfairly casts a blight on the individual umpire and officiating in general.

I also believe that baseball managers get too much credit for the limited influence they have on the play on the field.  Sure, managers put players in and out of the game and when a player with a more desirable set of skills fits a situation better. But I believe that players play and that they're the ones who must execute, sometimes to overcome the external forces that also have an effect on the game.  Games are not won or lost on one play or on one decision, or worse, one blown call.  A baseball game can have upwards of 60 plays or more, if the game goes extra innings; 60 or more plays in which either team can have a great influence on the eventual outcome.  By comparison, one or two plays at the end of the game are less than influential.

I am, however a fan who believes in momentum within the context of the sport and of an individual game.  When a team has momentum, they're focused and confident and can heighten their performance against a team that is reeling and falling apart.  When a team doesn't have it, they're back on their heels or gripping the bat tight, rigid and just trying to stem the tide.  (Was that enough cliches for you?)

Still, I feel that last night, Mike Matheny did a disservice to his team that likely cost the Cardinals the game and the series.  Matheny chose to press the issue on a potentially harmless stolen base that was mistakenly called "safe" by the second base umpire.  At that time, the Cardinals still hadn't lost, tied with the Cubs 2-2, though Matheny may have felt that the umpiring at that moment and earlier in the game put his team in a losing situation.  The Cardinals had one of their most dependable relief pitchers on the mound and facing an underperforming and strike-out prone middle of the Cubs' order.  When the stolen base happened, Matheny was well within his rights to question the call.  But continuing to argue to the point of being thrown out, making his players wait, possibly lessening the focus of his pitcher and a confidence-challenged second baseman zapped any trace of momentum the team might have had left at that moment.

I understand a manager's desire, overt or unstated, to fire up his team at a critical moment of a game, or better yet of the season, by getting himself thrown out of a game.  But to me, pressing the issue last night, in a game on April 24 against a last-place,was unadvised, unecessary, and to me, detrimental to the team's chances of winning.

Give the Cubs credit, though.  For two nights in a row, they executed and they came through against a team higher than them in the standings.  The Cubs were the better team on those two nights, thanks in part to poor judgment by a rookie manager.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

2012 NL West Preview


Let’s be honest. The National League West is the most boring division in baseball. They play their games after much of the country has started going to bed. There’s only two genuine stars in the division by my count (Matt Kemp and Tim Lincecum—your mileage may vary, that’s just my opinion). The most notable storyline last year was the complete disaster that is Frank McCourt. Let’s just skip them.
No, wait. When you stop to take a look at these teams, most of them are actually pretty interesting (sorry, San Diego). The other 4 teams have marquee players that are among the best in baseball, and it’s a shame that guys like Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki don’t get the press they deserve (shoot, Kemp is just now getting recognized for being possibly the best player in baseball). Clayton Kershaw won the Cy Young last year and Kemp should have won the MVP.  This is a pretty good division, and best of all, it’s up for grabs this year. So let’s get it started.

Monday, April 16, 2012

I'm back! 2012 AL West Preview


So, as far as you know, dedicated reader, I have written these months in advance and just forgot to post them. Yeah, let’s go with that. Even now, posting these previews is done in a vacuum as much as possible. The first 10 games of the season don’t tell us much about your favorite MLB team other than how they played the first 10 games this season. So better late than never. It’s time to jump back aboard the MLB 2012 preview train, taking our action out West for awhile as we cover the AL and NL West, American-style first. Here we go!

Thursday, April 12, 2012

2012 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview - Round 1

You obviously have not seen what is done with that cup!
For me, nothing beats what started last night it's the NHL Playoffs!  While football is my favorite sport in general it is the NHL Playoffs that I just cannot get enough of.  You combine the story lines of a baseball series with the toughness that football is.  Make no mistake, these match-ups are a seven game war!  And unlike basketball, every team has a chance, well maybe not the Panthers (Blackhawks South).  Not to mention is there really any trophy cooler than the Stanley Cup??  Not a chance!  Well lets get to the games and the predictions.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Ozzie: Open Mouth and Insert Foot

Well, that certainly didn't take very long.

As baseball fans, Chicagoans, and especially White Sox fans know all too well, Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen is prone to saying things that don't exactly go over well. And it only took into the first weekend of the 2012 season, a short four months after being hired as the first manager of the newly re-christened Miami Marlins, for Guillen to offend a significant segment of the south Florida population.

In an interview with Time Magazine, Guillen stated that he loves and admires Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. The context from which Guillen claims he was making this expression of respect was his admiration that Castro was able to remain in power for over a half-century with countless people that were after his removal from control Cuba and even after his life.