Let’s be honest. The National League West is the most boring
division in baseball. They play their games after much of the country has
started going to bed. There’s only two genuine stars in the division by my
count (Matt Kemp and Tim Lincecum—your mileage may vary, that’s just my
opinion). The most notable storyline last year was the complete disaster that
is Frank McCourt. Let’s just skip them.
No, wait. When you stop to take a look at these teams, most
of them are actually pretty interesting (sorry, San Diego). The other 4 teams
have marquee players that are among the best in baseball, and it’s a shame that
guys like Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki don’t get the press they deserve
(shoot, Kemp is just now getting recognized for being possibly the best player
in baseball). Clayton Kershaw won the Cy Young last year and Kemp should have
won the MVP. This is a pretty good
division, and best of all, it’s up for grabs this year. So let’s get it
started.
5th place: San Diego Padres
Delusion: There is a lot of interesting talent on the
MLB level this year.
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| Somehow, in-game calisthenics never caught on. |
Reality: The Padres are in the midst of the latest
rage in MLB, REBUILDING~! As the Rays have done, and the Cubs have begun to do
(as 2 examples), the Padres are proudly going with draft and development as their
path to future success. This is partly due to the in ability to spend as much
as the Giants and Dodgers (indeed, the Padres have the lowest payroll in MLB),
and mostly due to their owner going through a messy divorce, having no money,
and trying to sell the team but having his efforts blocked by Bud because he
(gasp!) tried to sell it to a FORMER AGENT. Dun-dun-dun.
Anyway, with this in mind the Padres have actively sold off
anyone ticket-buyers might be attached to. Adrian Gonzalez? Gone-zalez (I kill me).
And Mat Latos is off looking for his other t in Cinci. The Padres even allowed
Heath Bell to leave for nothing but draft compensation once it became clear
that everyone outside Miami knew he was a Petco product (I’ll explain that,
just give me a minute). The “faces” of the franchise are now Cameron Maybin,
Nick Hundley, and Orlando Hudson. Yep.
Delusion: Petco Park will help the Padres climb back
into contention.
Reality: Petco Park is known, and has been since
before it officially opened, as a cavern. With alleys over 400 feet, hitting a
home run there can be a Herculean feat. With that in mind, the Padres have been
able to sign mediocre pitchers and watch their stats slightly inflate when they
are at home, with the additional bonus of making those mediocre pitchers
occasionally look valuable to other teams, which can lead to some trades that
can boost the farm system. Sounds great, right?
Well, sure, until you consider the fact that the Padres also
have to HIT in that park over 81 games. And it’s not as if the fences in Petco
move in every half inning. The Padres lineup is staggeringly bad, and has been
for quite some time. They lucked into Adrian Gonzalez, a true middle of the
order bat, who was even a hometown product, and traded him away for nothing of
note yet (And they gave up on one of the biggest pieces of that trade, Anthony
Rizzo). They could have re-signed him, except the team was and is broke. So now
the pitchers will pitch outside Petco—say, in Coors Field for example—and be
bad. And the offense will hit outside Petco—and also be bad. All Petco will do
is sap the confidence of young hitters for years to come.
4th place: Colorado Rockies
Delusion: Big-money contracts to Gonzalez and
Tulowitzki help form a core that will keep the Rockies relevant for years to
come.
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| I got $151 million! I'M RICH! RICH I TELL YOU! |
Reality: Didn’t Dan O’Dowd learn ANYTHING? Years ago
the Rockies were a laughing stock after paying Mike Hampton and team leader
Todd Helton insane amounts of money (Hampton got $121 million over 8 years,
Helton $151 over 11 years). Neither of the contracts are looked back on fondly.
Except for maybe O’Dowd, because he re-signed young players Carlos Gonzalez (a
mere $80 million over 7 years) and Troy Tulowitzki ($120 million over 6 years).
Unless the Rockies are going to tap into that lucrative market for baseball on
Mars, dedicating $31 million a year to two players is going to hamstring them
in other areas. The Rockies current salaries total $78 million, meaning that
nearly 40% of their payroll goes to those two players. The remaining $47
million can buy you a team ALMOST as good as the Padres and Astros (team
salaries of $55 and $60 million respectively).
So in order to be consistently competitive with that salary
level, the Rockies will need to cultivate cheap, home-grown talent, as well as
finding bargains in Free Agency. They are off to a good start (trading Ubaldo
Jimenez for good prospects) and a bad one (paying Michael Cuddyer $10 million a
year). The salaries for Gonzalez and Tulowitzki will be something to build
around, not build on.
Delusion: The Rockies have JUST enough pitching to be
competitive this year.
Reality: Jhoulys Chacin. Jeremy Guthrie. Jamie Moyer.
Juan Nicasio. Drew Pomeranz. YOUR Colorado Rockies rotation. Just for fun, I
looked up the percentage of Yahoo fantasy baseball teams that own these 5 guys.
Chacin is owned by 48%, and the other 4…are either owned by 2% or 7%. Fantasy
baseball doesn’t equal real baseball success, but that just goes to show you
the numbers that these guys are putting up right now. Even Chacin, the most
coveted of the group, currently has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He’s the
defacto ace. Jorge De La Rosa should return sometime this year, presumably
pushing Moyer or Guthrie out.
So the Rockies are putting their hopes in the advancement of
prospects like Nicasio and Pomeranz, and continuing improvement from Chacin.
SOME of this is possible, even likely. But unless one of those 3 becomes the
next great ace, there’s not enough here to compete with pitching staffs in the
rest of the division (even San Diego!). Wait ‘till next year. Or maybe the year
after that.
3rd place: San Francisco Giants
Delusion: The age over youth philosophy with the
team’s offense is safe, if nothing else.
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| The Giants celebrate as Brian Wilson ACTUALLY amuses someone. |
Reality: This team is a mystery. They make my head
hurt. On one hand, they have a great, young core of pitching in Matt Cain, Tim
Lincecum, and Madison Bumgarner. If they get to the playoffs, you can’t count
them out in any series due to their strong starting pitching (see their World
Series title in 2010). And the bullpen isn’t bad either. They have a great
potential bat in Buster Posey, and a prospect in Brandon Belt.
On the other hand, this team just flat-out has no clue how
to build and manage young talent. It took Posey and extra year to break into
the everyday lineup (and even then, they almost moved him to 1B because they
didn’t want to upset future Hall of Famer Bengie Molina). Belt is languishing
behind the player formerly known as Aubrey Huff. One young player who IS
getting a shot to play every day is Brandon Crawford, who can field but can’t
hit. Their Free Agent track record is abysmal, from Aubrey Huff to Barry Zito,
and Aaron Rowand. If injuries and/or ineffectiveness hit one of the Big 3, this
team could free-fall.
There’s just so many players that could kindly be described
as “journeymen” here. Melky Cabrera had a good year last year but had a history
of disappointing teams before then. Angel Pagan has one full season under his
belt out of the 11 years he’s played in MLB. Ryan Theriot is Ryan Theriot. Getting
league-average production out of some of these guys might be the best-case
scenario (and again, Brandon Crawford can’t hit either). The Giants make my
head hurt. I don’t want to talk about them anymore.
2nd place: Los Angeles Dodgers
Delusion: The Dodgers didn’t improve over the
off-season.
Reality: After winning the division in 2008 and 2009,
the Dodgers fell to 4th place in 2010. Last year they “surged” to 3rd
and wasted a Cy Young performance from Clayton Kershaw and a near-MVP
performance from Matt Kemp by doing nothing else of note. During the
off-season, the Dodgers didn’t add much, signing retreads like Mark Ellis and
Jerry Hairston Jr.
So why have they improved? Stability. I don’t think the
McCourt saga greatly affected the on-field play last year, but last year was
the first year for Manager Don Mattingly, and Kemp and Kershaw both took huge
steps forward into super-stardom. Now they are back, and signed for multiple
years to be the core of the franchise. This is a team that has a better sense
of what they have to build around, and I think that will help them produce
where they couldn’t last year.
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| "If my wife calls, I'M NOT HERE!" |
Delusion: Kemp has a decent supporting cast in the
field
Reality: The Dodgers have a fatal flaw, and it is the
same as the Giants. Retread-itis. The team is full of guys making another stop
on another team. Mark Ellis is on his 3rd team in 2 years. Jerry
Hairston is on his 9th team. Other guys like Juan Uribe, Chris
Capuano, Mike MacDougal, and Adam Kennedy have been bouncing around for years.
The Dodgers don’t have an offensive player other than Dee Gordon who is on the
upward swing of their career path. All these guys are known quantities, and
what’s known about them isn’t so good. Their stasis the past few years
(presumably due to ownership issues) is holding back what should be a talented
team with a window to compete.
2nd place: Arizona Diamondbacks
Delusion: The D’Backs will definitely build on last
year’s surprising success.
Reality: A lot went right for the Diamondbacks last
year. Justin Upton lived up to his potential and had the near-MVP season many
were looking for. The bullpen, which was a huge issue for them in 2010,
rebounded and was solid, top to bottom. Young pitchers like Daniel Hudson and
Ian Kennedy developed into above-average starters. And this year, all those
guys are back. So why shouldn’t the D’Backs repeat last year’s division crown?
After all, Arizona traded for Trevor Cahill during the off-season, and has two
excellent pitching prospects (Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs) near-ready in the
minors. They even added Jason Kubel for some strange reason.
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| This came up on Google Image Search. And here I'd thought we had agreed to forget Eric Byrnes. |
And I can’t argue against all that. But that doesn’t mean
there aren’t some areas of concern. Young players, especially pitchers, are
prone to regression. I’m not saying that Kennedy and Hudson will become
terrible, but it’s certainly no guarantee that they will exceed or even match
last year’s production. This is still a team starting Aaron Hill and Willie
Bloomquist (but just until Stephen Drew comes back! Oh, wait, he’s never been that
good either). I have serious concerns about Ryan Roberts’ ability to be an
everyday player. And Paul Goldschmidt has some serious bust potential. I think
this team will still be good, and should win the division, but I just don’t
trust an automatic repeat of 2011 in 2012.
Delusion: The off-season moves GM Kevin Towers made
have improved the team.
Reality: What a strange set of moves Arizona made
over the off-season. Adding Cahill, a 24 year old pitcher with some MLB
success, might work out. But Cahill could also be Mark Mulder Mach II. Cahill
doesn’t have the strikeout rate that you would expect from an ace. He’s had
shoulder problems in the past. And oh yeah, last year he was just flat-out bad.
A 4.16 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP. Playing ½ of his games in a pitchers park. He may
wind up being the #4 starter on this team by the end of the year.
Jason Kubel is a head-scratcher. They already had Gerardo
Parra, a very good defensive outfielder who was competent with the bat. Kubel
was a DH most of the time in Minnesota, which, last time I checked, was not an
option in the National League. They also re-signed Aaron Hill, who they
acquired from Toronto in a “please take him! PLEASE!” trade. Hill had a good
year a few years ago and hit well the rest of the year last year, so I can
understand the gamble. Willie Bloomquist is a utility-man who will eventually
land on the bench where he belongs, but until then, he’s allegedly their
LEADOFF man. Yep. Makes perfect sense. It's a good thing they play in a division filled with teams more flawed than they are.
Next up: The one-team division known as the AL Central. I
get to go from writing about the Padres and Giants to the Twins and Indians.
YES.
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