So, as far as you know, dedicated reader, I have written
these months in advance and just forgot to post them. Yeah, let’s go with that.
Even now, posting these previews is done in a vacuum as much as possible. The
first 10 games of the season don’t tell us much about your favorite MLB team
other than how they played the first 10 games this season. So better late than
never. It’s time to jump back aboard the MLB 2012 preview train, taking our
action out West for awhile as we cover the AL and NL West, American-style
first. Here we go!
4th place: Oakland Athletics
Delusion: The Athletics have a direction for the
future of their franchise.
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| Seriously. You're an elephant. You're scary enough. Put the bats down, big guy. |
Reality: At what point do we stop feeling bad for
Billy Beane and start wondering if he’s just a flat-out masochist? He’s stuck
with this franchise as they slowly (then quickly) slid down the American League
pecking order to land here. No proven impact hitters going into the season. No
proving impact pitchers going into the season. Just a lot of meh.
The A’s haven’t had the revenue to build a competitive team.
They haven’t drafted and developed as well as a small-market team needs to.
Since the A’s don’t/didn’t have the money to keep their best players, they’ve
been in an endless cycle of selling off parts for prospects, most of which
don’t pan out. The diminishing returns (for instance—Mark Mulder for Dan Haren
for Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Holliday for Brett Wallace for 26 year old AAA OF
Michael Taylor. Oops) have bled the A’s dry. In addition, the A’s also didn’t
have money to draft the more expensive, higher-upside players available in the
draft. Their answer to the problem? One day, they are going to move to San
Jose, and get a new stadium, and THEN they’ll be good! Honest!
Except that former owner Walter Haas GAVE AWAY the
territorial rights to San Jose to the Giants. And the Giants aren’t very
interested in giving them back. The territorial rights are part of MLB’s
antiquated system that enforce local “fan loyalty,” since it’s not like we are
in a day and age where games can be seen world-wide or anything. The other
owners could override the Giants, but nobody wants to do that in case they set
a precedent that comes back to haunt them. Bottom line-San Jose ain’t happening
any time soon. And neither is an Oakland return to relevance.
Delusion: Yoenis Cespedes can save the Athletics.
Reality: Over the off-season, the MLB world was
awe-struck by a training video of Cuban refugee Yoenis Cespedes (who’s name, by
the way, I successfully typed in without Google’s help, thank you very much).
Cespedes was a free agent, one of the last before MLB’s anti-competitive
restrictions on international free agents is installed this July. So it was
quite a shock when the Athletics, of all teams, signed him to a contract. After
all, this is a team that has cried poverty for almost 15 years now. Cespedes
certainly has physical tools, and was a great risk for the A’s to take.
But that’s not to say he can bring the A’s to relevance.
There’s just nothing surrounding him this year. It would seem the A’s signed
him for two reasons—one, to give fans something to see at the ballpark, and
two, to build around once they get that new stadium. With option two still in
limbo, it’s hard to see how he fits into their plan for contention. Even IF
they get approval to go to San Jose this year (highly unlikely), and move next
year (even MORE unlikely), that gives them 3 years to gather a team that can
beat the Angels and Rangers. Cespedes may become a great player but it will
take much more to compete. More likely, option two is to trade in four years
before he hits free agency
3rd place: Seattle Mariners
Delusion: The Mariners have a clear direction going
forward.
Reality: This is a weird, weird team. 2 years ago,
the Mariners were the popular dark-horse pick in the AL. They had signed Chone
Figgins, traded for Cliff Lee, and had positioned themselves as the “pitching
and defense” team. Despite everyone looking at that lineup and thinking “they
aren’t going to score any runs” people jumped on the bandwagon. Despite Felix
Hernandez winning the Cy Young award, the team failed in all areas, traded
Cliff Lee midseason, and faded into oblivion. One 61-101 record later, the
bandwagon smashed head-on into the Space Needle. Nobody was hurt.
Since then, the Mariners shed the ridiculous notion of
contending and went into rebuilding mode. Kinda. They have continued to draft
young pitchers who should fit in well at spacious Safeco Field. Micheal Pineda made the All-Star team as a
rookie (granted, it all kind of fell apart after that, but we’ll get to that in
a minute). Dustin Ackley could become an All-Star second baseman. Justin Smoak
has shown flashes of stardom while being hampered by injuries.
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| Mariner Moose. Enabling racial harmony since 2002. |
At the same time, the team is hampered by bad decisions,
both past and present. Mention Adrian Beltre to a Mariners fan if you can find
one. Ichiro, after being the face of the franchise for a decade, has finally
seen age catch up to him and saw his OBP drop to a replacement-level .310 last
year. He has become…Juan Pierre. Poor guy. At least he can cry himself to sleep
on his bad stuffed with the EIGHTEEN MILLION DOLLARS he will make this year.
Chone Figgins has become a poster-child for the poor fiscal responsibility of
MLB teams. For the low, low price of only NINE million dollars a year (half as
much as Ichiro!) Seattle enjoyed a .241 OBP in 81 games last year. The best part is that Mariners fans get to
enjoy this act for another 3 years! Have fun with that.
“But that’s in the past,” you say. Well, I don’t know about
you, but if I have the worst player in baseball stealing money on MY team, I
sure would bat him leadoff, wouldn’t you? Eric Wedge would. And until that
mentality changes, it’s hard for me to have much hope for this franchise in the
future. I just envision these young prospects starting to pay off, until
Seattle signs Curtis Granderson to a bazillion dollar deal and watches him turn
into Kosuke Fukudome.
Delusion: Stockpiling young pitchers will pay off for
the Mariners in the future.
Reality: 5 out of the top 10 Mariners prospects are
pitchers, most notably #2 Taijuan Walker, #3 Danny Hultzen, and #4 James
Paxton. This wealth of talent allowed them to trade Pineda, who was showing
signs of fluke-itis, for a potential impact hitter in Jesus Montero. With Felix
Hernandez under team control for 3 more years, the potential is there to have a
top-flight pitching rotation by the time Hernandez could leave.
So what’s the problem. I’ve said it before—TINSTAAPP. There
is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. Pitchers are so prone to injuries, not
to mention uneven performance, that banking your future on them backfires as
much as it pays off. If three of those 4 turns into top of the rotation
starters, Seattle will be in good shape. If only one does…well, not much will
change from where they are now. Impact hitters are in short supply in Seattle’s
system, as evidenced by the Montero acquisition. If Ackley and Smoak don’t hit
(and Smoak is in a make-or break year this year)…it won’t matter how good their
pitchers are. See 2010.
2nd place: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Delusion: Albert Pujols!
Reality: Dear Angels: Congratulations! You have
agreed to pay a (possibly) 32 year old man 249 million dollars! Including 30
million in 10 years, when he will almost certainly be a slow, old DH.
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| "I'm too old for this..." naah. Too easy. |
Baseball Reference compares Pujols to some pretty amazing
hitters through age 31. Henry Aaron is #4 on the list. Willie Mays is #9. But
Jimmie Foxx is #1. Foxx had a great, Hall of Fame career. He also hit 70 home
runs after age 31. Ken Griffey Jr. is #2. He hit 170 home runs. Frank Robinson
is #3. 183 for him. Home runs are just one stat, and these guys were still
(mostly) great players for the rest of their careers, but short of Aaron and
Mays…not worth $249 million dollars. And Lord help you if you got Juan Gonzalez
(#8!). And if Pujols is really 34 or something like that…the numbers get even
uglier.
I know, I know, flags fly forever. I get that. But what good
is a 2012 World Series championship in 2021, when you are paying $30 million
for, say, the .204 slugging percentage Ken Griffey put up at age 40? Not to
mention the slight issue of, you know, winning the World Series?
Delusion: The Angels are ready to make a World Series
push.
Reality: This team has some serious holes. They have
3 first basemen. One is the (duh) Albert Pujols, who will and should start
every day. The second is Kendrys Morales, who was a very good first baseman
until suffering a freak injury that sidelined him for 2 years. The third is
Mark Trumbo, who is not a good first baseman offensively or defensively.
Meanwhile, they have no third baseman to speak of. So let’s put the not-good
defensive first baseman, over there, where it is harder to play defense. Great.
They are also paying 3 over the hill, mediocre outfielders $38 million (!!!) to
be not very good. Their best outfielder is in AAA.
And that’s just the offense. They have a good rotation, even
if you ignore their #5 starter being out of the major leagues for 5 years until
last year. But their bullpen is old, man. OLD. You would be forgiven if you
thought Jason Isringhausen and Darren Oliver were out of baseball. Scott Downs
has been in baseball for 12 years now, and wasn’t very good for most of them.
Hisanori Takahashi is a 37 year old Japanese import. The two young guys, Kevin
Jepsen and closer Jordan Walden, have 215 MLB innings pitched between
them. There’s a lot of room for error
here. The starting pitching is strong enough, and there is enough offense that
you can’t count them out. But if they fall short of the playoffs this year,
there will be more than a few reasons why.
1st place: Texas Rangers
Delusion: The Rangers window for contention will be
open for some time to come.
Reality: It’s possible, but only if the vaunted farm
system produces the starts it supposedly has. Because a lot of stuff has gone
right for the Rangers the past few years, and there’s room for it to go bad in
a hurry. There are a few players here that could get bad real quick. Josh
Hamilton is coming up to Free Agency, and even if re-signed, has proven to have
his flaws over the past few years. Michael Young had a surprisingly good year
last year but is 35. Adrian Beltre’s career path is littered with sizable
potholes. Nelson Cruz struggles to stay healthy. Joe Nathan didn’t exactly
light the world on fire last year after returning from Tommy John surgery and
is now 37 years old. There’s a lack of depth in the pitching rotation,
especially if Yu Darvish struggles in adjusting to MLB hitting.
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| Even Sarah Jessica Parker loves the Rangers! |
Those are mostly minor concerns this year. The Rangers are
real good right now. But as players age after 30, they usually don’t get
better. The Rangers have one of the best farm systems in baseball, but most of
their core (Andrus, Hamilton, etc) were poached from other teams. If they can’t
develop their talent, it will haunt them. Especially because…
Delusion: Ron Washington is a great manager
Reality: …their manager is hurting them. For all
intents and purposes, Ron Washington is reportedly a great motivator and a good
guy. Good for him. Because his tactical decisions, especially with his bullpen,
have cost him at least one World Series title. The numerous tactical errors are
well-documented (Joe Strauss said it best when he tweeted
this during the World Series: “TLR playing chess. The other dugout playing
checkers.”). Ron Washington “follows his gut.” He might consider taking some
Pepto.
Aaand that’s the AL West. Timely, relevant, interesting…HEY!
WAKE UP!
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