After five months of celebration, the Cardinals are poised to defend that championship. They open the season tonight against the newly-christened Miami Marlins in the Marlin's equally new home south Florida ballpark. But after an off-season that saw possibly more key changes than any world championship team has ever faced, uncertainty looms for the Cardinals in the 2012 season. Gone is hall-of-fame-bound manager of 16 years Tony La Russa. Gone is stalwart pitching coach Dave Duncan, a coach many consider to be the greatest pitching coach in the history of the game and a major reason for any of the Cardinals' pitching prowess during La Russa's tenure. Gone is the first baseman and lineup keystone of the past 11 years Albert Pujols. And gone is minor league guru and assistant general manager Jeff Luhnow, who has taken over general managerial reigns for the Houston Astros.
With all of the turn-over of key personnel in the organisation, on-field and off, the Cardinals also brought in new faces into the mix, not the least of which is the new field manager Mike Matheny. Though he has no tangible major league coaching experience, Matheny does have confidence and respect from players and the front office. Matheny's managerial style and tendancies remain a mystery and will only be revealed (possibly even to himself) as the 2012 season progresses. Indications in spring training show that he will be more aggressive with base running than was La Russa, and Matheny has admitted that he will provide plenty of rest for his key veterans throughout the season. Still, little else was revealed and Cardinals fans can only guess what Matheny's new influence on the team will mean for the Cardinals' success in the new season.
The lineup: Any team cannot lose one of the most historically potent bats in the game and expect to simply replace the production without skipping a beat, but the Cardinals may have come as close as they reasonably could. Sure, they could have made a hard push at Prince Fielder as a similarly productive bat, but to truly expect that would have been a pipe dream. Instead, the Cardinals chose spend the $25M+ on multiple players instead of one, signing OF Carlos Beltran, re-singing SS Rafael Furcal, extending the contract of keystone C Yadier Molina, and maintaining financial flexibility for the next 10 years. The result is a much more balanced and dynamic, if less-imposing, lineup than they fielded at any time last year.
As long as the key players remain healthy, there shouldn't be much ambiguity to what should be the daily starting lineup. Matheny will rest his veterans in an attempt to keep them healthy and as refreshed as possible for another late-season run at the playoffs. The everyday starting lineup will likely look like this:
SS Rafael Furcal
RF Carlos Beltran
LF Matt Holliday
1B Lance Berkman
3B David Freese
C Yadier Molina
2B Tyler Greene/Daniel Descalso
CF Jon Jay
A distinct feature of this lineup that could spell danger for opposing managers in late innings is the fact that this lineup begins with three of four switch-hitters. This could even feature the top three as switch-hitters on days that Holliday needs a rest or a hot Berkman hits third before a slumping Holliday. Furcal, when healthy (which is the consistent caveat at this juncture of his career), provides much needed defensive stability at shortstop that the Cardinals sorely lacked until his acquisition mid-season last year. The offensive contribution Furcal provides is a much greater question mark, because if he hits like he did in an injury-riddled 2011 season (.197/.272/.248 as a Dodger, .255/.316/.418 as a Cardinal) he could quickly find himself out of his customary lead-off spot and batting 8th, though his defense will keep him in the lineup. Beltran, brought in to help fill an offensive void, must also stay healthy to provide necessary production in this middle of the order. After suffering from a string freak injuries in 2011 (appendectomy in April, moth-in-ear in August, batting practice hand injury in September), Holliday returns to anchor the lineup. Berkman had an unbelievable 2011, and to expect a repeat at the age of 36 is unrealistic. However, 25 home runs and better than 85 RBI and a .290 average will be just enough to protect Holliday.
Equally unrealistic is to expect David Freese to continue the pace he set in the 2011 playoffs, during which we won NLCS and World Series MVP honors. Freese is a key player on the rise, but his is not a high-average/power bat as much as it is a respectable-average/RBI one. As long as his injuries are in the past, he will also be an adequate defensive third baseman. Yadier Molina has proven that he is at the top of the list of defensive catchers while providing dependable offensive production. The remaining of the lineup will provide Matheny plenty of opportunities to involve multiple players. Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene will share primary second base duties, though Greene and his offensive potential have been given every opportunity to secure the job. Jon Jay is a capable outfielder, but he doesn't impress with his offensive production short of his ability to get on base at an above average rate. Skip Schumaker and Allen Craig will also have plenty of opportunities to work their way into the lineup once they fully recover from injuries of their own.
The starting pitchers: The biggest addition to the Cardinals may not have been a free agent signing or a blockbuster trade, but rather is the return of SP Adam Wainwright to the starting rotation after recovering from Tommy John surgery one year ago. The dreams of Cardinals fans again were filled with the visions of Wainwright and SP Chris Carpenter pitching back-to-back and dominating the NL from the mound. But before Carpenter could face any hitters in spring training, he suffered a neck injury that should keep him sidelined until mid-May. After staff ace Wainwright, and hopefully a returning Carpenter after minimal time off, will be lefty Jaime Garcia, and veteran righties Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook. Lohse will taking the mound on Opening Day, becoming the first opposing pitcher against the Miami Marlins as they open their new stadium. This is a somewhat arbitrary distinction, though, as this simply sets up the rotation to allow Wainwright to pitch in the home opener nine days later. Lohse returns to the rotation after a very strong year in 2011, the first full year following experimental surgery to muscular sheaths in his throwing forearm. Westbrook had a disappointing year and must have a better year to help the pitching staff make up the difference of production lost in Carpenter's absence. Taking Carpenter's spot in the rotation will be Lance Lynn, who would move back to the bullpen when Carpenter returns.
The bullpen: The Cardinals bullpen is the component of the team that had seen the least turnover during the off season. Jason Motte, though not the "official closer" in 2011, returns as the late-inning power arm that has been officially designated at the closer. Righties Mitchell Boggs, Kyle McClellan, and Fernando Salas resume fimiliar roles, while lefties Marc Rzepczynski and new-comer J.C. Romero will face opposing left-handed bats. Another additon to the bullpen will be veteran Scott Linebrink.
The bench: The most prominent reserves for the Cardinals in 2012 will be Skip Schumaker, filling in at second base and all three outfield spots, and Allen Craig, backing up for first base and also all of the outfield positions. Both are injured to begin the season, but both should be healthy mid- to late-April. Tony Cruz, versatility and all, will return to back up at catcher and a little of first base and right field. The remaining spot on the 25-man roster has yet to be officially announced and may be represented by corner infielder Matt Carpenter or rule 5 draftee Erik Komatsu. While Carpenter provides a power bat off of the bench and can back up third and first bases, Komatsu holds a distinct advantage, as if he does not spend the entire year on the major league roster he would be offered back to the Washington Nationals for half of what what the Cardinals paid for him.
The outlook: The manager of 16 years. Their best hitter, MVP, perennial All Star, the franchise piece, the crown jewel. Arguably the best pitching coach in the history of the game. And now their field general and co-ace starting pitcher (at least for several weeks). To me, it is very hard to expect a team that has lost as much as the Cardinals have since Allen Craig caught the last out in the 2011 World Series to achieve close to what they did last year. Luckily for the Cardinals, though, the rest of the NL Central hasn't fared much better, with the Brewers losing their own impact franchise piece, the Reds recently losing their big free agent signing to Tommy John surgery, the Cubs and Pirates a few years away from challenging for the division pennant, and the Astros as deplete of talent as any team in the majors. However, to expect a
This team is aging and Holliday and Molina are the only core players without significant histories of injury problems. The 2012 Cardinals will go as far as their health will let them. If the injury bug rears it ugly head and bites multiple key players, this will be a long and disappointing season for Cardinals Nation.
My prediction: I really can't expect that the Cardinals, after not even winning the NL Central Championship last year on their way to the World Series, to be good enough to win the division pennant without a challenge, even if they do finish the season atop the division standings. Even thinking optimistically, I don't know how this team, with so many key changes over the past five months, can be guaranteed to make the playoffs, much less successfully defend their World Series Championship. I can only guess that this Cardinals team will have heavy competition at the top the National League Central Division, with equal likelihood of finishing first in the division as falling to four behind the Reds, Brewers, and resurgent Pirates thanks an injury-plagued and aging starting lineup.
But that's what makes looking at this upcoming season so much fun. There is so much unknown and so much intrigue. How will the team adjust to an overhauled offense that now lacks the best player of the the last decade? How will Mike Matheny guide this group of veterans, learning from his unavoidable mistakes and capitalize on his successes? Will the pitching staff remain as effective without Dave Duncan at the helm? Will the aged veterans get enough rest to stay healthy and see enough playing time to stay sharp? How will injuries creep up and affect the team's performance? So much of this story is still to be told, and I can't wait to see it unfold between now and October.
Sure glad this posted with your name as the author, Andy. :)
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