2012 MLB Preview: AL East

Let’s start off with the TITAN~! of baseball, the New York Yankees. And their equally majestic rivals, the Boston Red Sox. And three other teams. </ESPN>

I’ll keep this brief and list each team in reverse order, with a few delusions and realities about each team. Follow me after the jump...

5^th place: Baltimore Orioles.

Delusion: Baltimore is a well-run, functional organization that enjoys solid fan support.

Reality: OK, nobody believes that…but you have to think we’ve reached the bottom when they’ve black-balled from an entire country.

Delusion: The Orioles plan to build from the ground up is solid. Give it time.

Reality: The only problem is that the rest of the division is currently building, drafting, and signing better than they can.  Their only hope is that by the time they peak the window will have closed on the Rays and Blue Jays. And luck. Lots and lots of luck.

Tweet! Tweet! We suck!

Delusion: Buck Showalter can motivate his team to out-perform expectations.

Reality: There is absolutely no evidence to support this claim. After a strong end to 2010, the Orioles went 69-93 last year. Their 2011 highlight was going 4-0 to start the season, and knocking the Red Sox out of the Wild Card. What a genius!

4^th place: Toronto Blue Jays

Delusion: The Blue Jays will make the playoffs this year.

Reality: It’s not IMpossible, but it sure ain’t likely. To be in the top 5 AL teams this year the Blue Jays need to be better than three out of these five: the Rangers, the Angels, the Rays, the Yankees, and the Red Sox. On paper, they don’t have the lineup or the rotation to do that.

The World Series's finest moment.

Delusion: The Blue Jays have a solid, dependable offense.

Reality: There’s a lot of risk here. They are counting on a bunch of former prospects like Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, and (kind of) Travis Snider to put everything together. Each of these guys has shown signs of hope. But boy, they’ve also been really bad. Fellow prospect Brett Lawrie is the guy everyone is really excited about, but he has 161 MLB at bats and was injury prone last year. Hardly a sure thing.

Delusion: The Blue Jays have a solid, dependable pitching staff.

Reality: Notice a trend here? Ricky Romero had what some might call a breakout season last year. Not me, but some might. He certainly was good, and most teams would be happy to have him, but he’s the only notable pitcher in this staff. Just go look at their rotation if you don’t believe me. On top of that, just like their offense, their pitching is relying on hope that former prospects like Dustin McGowan, Brett Cecil and Kyle Drabek can live up to former expectations. And there’s little evidence they can.

3^rd place: Boston Red Sox

Delusion: The Red Sox had a good off-season.

Reality: Their offseason was all about subtraction. Theo Epstein had enough and went to Chicago, and their only good news was about the guys who won’t be wearing the uniform in 2012—like John Lackey, J.D. Drew and Jason Varitek. They gave away Marco Scutaro, which isn’t a crime, but they did that with no viable alternative at SS.  This is a team with more question marks now than last spring.

Delusion: Bobby Valentine will be a positive addition.

Beating up the elderly? That's how we roll.

Reality: UGH. The one notable addition for the Red Sox this year was Bobby Valentine as manager. Let’s set aside Valentine’s poor managerial record (he has a .510 winning percentage as manager) and one World Series appearance in 15 years. He also has a history of causing trouble, creating unneeded controversy, and failing to meet expectations. He’s already calling out his own players for poor performance and is clashing with his GM. In Spring Training. Have fun with that, Boston.

Delusion: The Red Sox are a team in free-fall.

Reality: Hold on there buddy! There’s still some good pieces here. David Ortiz isn’t showing signs of slowing down yet. Dustin Pedroia is still there. Adrian Gonzalez is a real offensive force, and appears to be over a lingering shoulder issue and is definitely over Petco-it is. Boston’s offense is fine. The pitching is the real worry, but there’s still enough here to keep them in the AL playoff race.

2^nd place: Tampa Bay Rays

Delusion: The Rays are a post-season lock.

Reality: That was a team that got in to the playoffs on a fluke home run, and bowed out quickly to Texas. It took an astounding series of events to get them that far, including a crazy free-fall from Boston. Sure flags fly forever, but all those things…they’re not happening this year. Even with the extra Wild Card, Tampa must now contend with Albert Pujols and the Angels out West. They’ve got a good chance at it, but it’s no sure thing.

Delusion: The Rays didn’t do enough to improve their offense during the offseason.

Reality: We’ve subtracted Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman’s resurgence, and added Luke Scott and Carlos Pena. Pena and Kotchman may turn out to be a wash if Pena has anything left in the tank. He’s a useful player and is underrated since his batting average is so low. Sure Luke Scott is crazy, and his potential to be bad is high, but if he is they can always go out and get…Johnny Damon.

Delusion: The Rays should trade from their surplus of young pitchers.

It's a shame he wasn't allowed to go into the Hall as a D-Ray.
I have such fond memories.

Reality:  Tampa currently has enough good young starting pitchers to fill out two decent rotations. There’s David Price, James Shields, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Jeff Niemann currently filling out your starting five, with  Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Alex Cobb, Alex Torres, and Chris Archer waiting for their turn. Price and Shields are proven quality MLB starters, entering their physical peak. Moore and Hellickson have “big-time prospect” labels.

So why not move the rest of the guys? TINSTAAPP. There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. All I should need to do is mention the name Mark Prior to you Cubs fans, then wait for the crying and/or cursing to subside. There there. Yes, Tampa has depth that most teams would kill for. But you never, ever, assume that potential = results. Luckily for Rays fans, Friedman is well aware of this and has been shrewd in the little trading he has done (Archer, for instance, came from the Matt Garza trade. Aw, and the Cubs fans had just stopped cursing).

Finally, the presumptive favorite:

1^st place: New York Yankees

Delusion: The Yankees shouldn’t worry about their pitching come playoff time.

Reality: Pitchers are always mysteries but last year the Yankees really had some weird stuff going on. For instance, the magical stem cells in Bartolo Colon’s arm carried them much of the year. Rookie Ivan Nova emerged, and they Freddy Garcia had just enough to be a productive starter. This year, Colon’s gone and his replacement is phenom Michael Pineda. One problem: lefties currently crush Pineda. And Yankee Stadium has a legendarily short porch in left. Combine that with a stronger division, questions about makeup, and, oh yeah, a few MPH missing in Spring Training and this “upgrade” may wind up in AAA to start the year. Especially now that Andy Pettitte has decided to come back and ply his crafty lefty-ness one more year. At least CC Sabathia is back to give them an ace.

In the bullpen, much of the same cast is back this year. That’s a problem. Outside of David Robertson and the immortal Mariano Rivera (I’ll believe he’s retiring about 3 years after the press conference) the bullpen wasn’t so good, especially in the playoffs. Despite outscoring the Tigers 28-17 in the series, they lost 3 of the 5 games. Not good enough. And it won’t be this year unless something changes.

And THAT'S how you slap the ball out of someone's hand!

Delusion: This lineup is too old to contend anymore.

Reality: While age is definitely an issue, the core players are not yet at the end of the line. Throw name value aside for a second. Last year the lineup was powered mostly by Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira. They are 29, 31 and 31 respectively. While Yankees fans can worry about A-Rod and Jeter, they are still productive MLB players, especially in this lineup. Barring injury, this is the best lineup in the division from top to bottom. 

Delusion: The Yankees are going to cut payroll over the next couple of years.
Reality: A few weeks ago, Hal Steinbrenner was quoted saying that in 2014 the team will have cut their payroll under the MLB salary cap, currently $189 million dollars. Allow me to comment. HAHAHAHAHA. There.
In 2014, $75 million dollars will go to these four: Derek Jeter, Mark Texeira, CC Sabathia, and Alex Rodriguez. So that will leave $114 million for the other 36 players, which is about 3.1 million per player. That's the average MLB salary in 2012. So Hal is saying he's filling the rest of his roster with average players the next 2 years. Does anyone realistically believe this?
If you do, let me throw one more tidbit out there--Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson's contracts will expire before 2014. So in order to keep them, they will shell out another 50 million (estimated--what's a few million between friends?) to those 2. So that drops our total down to $64 million for 34 players. Now we're averaging about 1.9 million. And the expectation of a World Series every year. Betances and Banuelos better be amazing.

Whew! There you have it. A completely scientific, sure-to-be correct breakdown of the AL East. Next up, the NL Central. DUN DUN DUN...