2012 MLB Preview: NL Central

Perhaps no division in baseball is as interesting this year as the NL Central. The top three teams all underwent some changes during the off-season, and the Brewers and Cardinals both lost their biggest bats. So that would, in theory, mean that the way is paved for the Reds to ride right to a division title. Of course, in theory…

Even the bottom half of the division adds some interest. The Cubs have begun their rebuilding process, and the Pirates are slowly pushing out of theirs. Shoot, even the Astros will be interesting, at least in their challenge of the 1962 Mets for the worst 162-game record in MLB history (technically speaking—the Mets only played 160 due to cancellations. If you want to get picky, the 2003 Tigers hold the record with 43 wins). 40 wins people, that’s the mark.

In the interest of time and boredom, I’ve pared the list down to two misconceptions if not outright delusions Spring Training may give the fans of each team (and that’s being generous for the Astros—I don’t think anyone has any delusions about that team). Let’s get started by going to the outhouse—it’s a long way down, and someone (Ed Wade) left an awful mess down there…

6^th place: Houston Astros

Got a glove? You could play 3B for the Astros this year.

Delusion: Carlos Lee can be traded for prospects.

Reality: Again, there really isn’t any delusion down in Houston. Everyone is aware that this team is one of the worst in recent baseball history, and will be that way for a long, long time. The only name value in the lineup is Carlos Lee, and that’s pushing it. Lee is theoretically the Astros’ best player. He’s 35, barely mobile, and had an earth-shattering .788 OPS last year. And the ‘Stros pay the bargain basement of $18.5 million dollars for his services.

Of course, that isn’t to say that he can’t be traded (I reckon Houston would likely eat most if not all of that salary in a trade). But getting anything useful for him would require a notable resurgence offensively. And with the free-agent market for old DH’s like Vladimir Guerrero non-existent, even that may not be enough.

Delusion: There’s anything interesting about this roster.

Reality: Just look at the roster. LOOK AT IT! It’s like disciplining your dog when they take a dump on the carpet. I dare anyone aside from die-hard baseball fans or sado-machocists to recognize more than a handful of these names. While it’s good to know that Livan Hernandez is still kinda in the major leagues, there’s just…nothing…good here.  There’s no top prospects that could step up and lead the team (and in case you were wondering, there aren’t any in the minors either). No “change of scenery” guys you can squeeze some value out of (sorry, Jed Lowrie). Just…guys. I’m convinced Drayton McLane was trying to recreate the plot of Major League in case MLB blocked the sale of the team during the off-season. That’ll show ‘em.

5^th place: Pittsburgh Pirates

Delusion: THIS is the year we break .500!

AARGH MATEY! Press X!

Reality: How? As tempting as it is to leave it at that, I’ll elaborate. Last year the Pirates surprised baseball by actually being competitive for ½ a season before remembering that they are the Pirates. During the off-season, they added aces in A. J. Burnett and Erik Bedard. No, wait, scratch that. I forgot it’s not 2006. The two are good gambles for the team, but they are still lacking in all the areas they’ve always been lacking in. They don’t have the starting pitching to match up against the rest of the division, and they don’t have the lineup depth to have a quality offense. Their best shot at .500 this year is growth from guys like Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, and Jose Tabata. There’s no evidence to suggest that’s coming. I think they do break .500 soon, but not this year.

Delusion: Andrew McCutchen is just the latest in Pirates prospects who start quickly, then flame out. See: new teammate Nate McLouth.

Reality: Unless you live outside Pennsylvania, odds are you haven’t seen Andrew McCutchen play a whole lot. Which is too bad. Because I guarantee you that if he played in New York or Boston, the streets would be flooded with #22 jerseys and McCutchen would be everywhere. They hype would have been off the charts.

It’s good for the Pirates that he hasn’t gotten that sort of attention, because if he had they wouldn’t have been able to sign him to a 6 year, $51.5 million contract extension this winter. For a team like the Pirates, quick to sell off players in the past (they just don’t do it well) to hang on to McCutchen shows that they believe there is something different here.

In case you can’t tell, I’m a big Andrew McCutchen fan. He’s real good. He now has 3 years of MLB service under his belt, and 1575 career at-bats. He’s shown steady improvement all 3 years, posting a WAR (Wins above Replacement—how much better McCutchen would be than the average player) of 5.5. That’s All-Star level, and he was indeed an All-Star last year. In 2011 he had 23 home runs and 23 stolen bases. And he’s only 24. At the very least he profiles as a solid, above-average MLB regular for a long, long time.

4^th place: Chicago Cubs

Delusion: The Cubs are going to be really bad.

Reality: The Cubs won’t contend for the playoffs to be sure, but I think they will improve on last year’s 71-91 record. The main on-field changes this year are the departure of Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano. The offense will definitely feel the loss of both corner infielders, but you could argue that Zambrano represents addition by subtraction. Losing Mike Quade definitely is.

I don't need to say anything here, do I?

Anyone looking at the 2011 record and expecting regression should look harder. The 2011 Cubs under-achieved. That team was viewed as a potential playoff contender at the beginning of the season. Even with the significant losses on offense, 70 wins seems like the low end for this team, with a run at .500 representing their best-case scenario. I can easily see them being the best baseball team in Chicago this year, which isn’t saying much, but still.

Delusion: There’s anything interesting about THIS roster, either.

Reality: Welcome to baseball purgatory, Cubs fans. You’re not Astros bad (and be grateful for that) but there’s not a whole lot of interesting players on your roster either. And no, Ryan Dempster’s bad stand-up comedian act doesn’t count. The one player worth watching on a day-to-day basis is Starlin Castro. Castro is an incredibly exciting and frustrating player to watch. One day he will hit a triple and make an amazing play from the hole in short. The next day he will strike out 3 times and overthrow first.

Getting Castro to play consistently well is one of rookie manager Dale Sveum’s most important jobs this year. Castro’s similarity scores at his age on baseball-reference.com list 3 Hall of Famers and Mike Caruso. This year will go a long way towards choosing his future path.

After Castro, there’s a bunch of names very, very familiar to Cubs fans (like Soriano, Wells, and Soto) and a few cast-offs like Ian Stewart and the big acquisition this year, David DeJesus. I know! A game-changer if there ever was one. I feel for Cubs beat writers this year. And for Starlin Castro, who will be torn down and built up in the press about 80 times.

There’s a big line here, separating the pretenders from the contenders. And 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th place seem pretty set here. 1^st through 3^rd on the other hand…got a hat I can borrow?

3^rd place: St. Louis Cardinals

Delusion: The Cardinals have done enough to soften the blow of Albert Pujols leaving.

Reality: That’s still weird to process. Albert Pujols is not a St. Louis Cardinal. Odd. I’m sure that nobody expected the Cardinals to adequately replace Pujols’s production in the St. Louis lineup. And by the time he left, they had two options: spread his money around to strengthen the team in many areas, or blow it all (and then some) in a push for Prince Fielder. By all accounts, they never considered the second option.

And that’s fine. The problem is that option one in that plan apparently led to adding another expensive, aging player to go with the ones they already had. Carlos Beltran is the big name, and he turned down more money (reportedly) from other teams like Toronto to don the bird on the bat.

Albert Pujols has ascended into Heaven.
Yeah, THAT's what  "he's playing with the Angels" means.

Beltran got off to a big start last year, and was traded to the Giants mid-way through the year, where he played well. He now joins Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday as the core of the Cardinals lineup. Ages: 36, 32, and 34. Add in 34 year-old Rafael Furcal, and 36 year-old Chris Carpenter and this is a team that is really hoping to squeeze some good years out of players who, statistically speaking, tend not have less-good years. That’s not to say it is impossible, but man, you’ve put yourself in a bad position.

Delusion: The Cardinals have the pitching staff to overcome any offensive regression.

Reality: The biggest addition for the Cardinals this year may have been the return of Adam Wainwright from Tommy John surgery. The surgery last year came as a huge shock to the Cardinals, but all reports have been positive about Wainwright’s recovery. That’s the good news. The bad news is that after Wainwright and Jamie Garcia, YOUR St. Louis Cardinal rotation is some combination of the aforementioned 36 year-old Carpenter (who is already hurt), Kyle Lohse, and Jake Westbrook. Lohse is untradable (literally—for some reason they gave him a no-trade clause), and Westbrook is a ground-ball pitcher backed up by an aging defense. The bullpen looks okay, with the exception of a proven closer at the back end. Jason Motte looked good last year but has struggled with the role in the past. It’s not a terrible staff, but you need more if your hitters turn into pumpkins.

2^nd place: Cincinnati Reds

Delusion: The Reds are serious National League contenders.

Reality: The playoffs aren’t impossible, but there are some big questions with this team that haven’t been answered. After winning the division in 2010, the Reds came crashing back to earth in 2011. Injuries and poor performance, especially from key positions like shortstop and third base, sunk the Reds offense. The bullpen and rotation never really found a groove and struggled through injuries as well. Injuries. Remember that.

I'm...so...scared...

So what’s new this year? Some names are new, but the problems are the same. No real changes have been made at shortstop and third. This extremely veteran team still has the husk of Scott Rolen manning the hot corner, but surprisingly is trusting rookie Zack Cozart, who played 11 MLB games last year before getting injured. Yep.

On the mound, the Reds made a bold move getting Mat Latos from San Diego. Latos was a bit of an enigma out west, having a strong rookie season but following that up with a disappointing 2011. He injured his shoulder in spring training and never really seemed to recover. Which Latos the Reds this year get may define their season. The other big acquisition, Ryan Madson, is already (wait for it) injured and out for the year (cue comical foghorn). This leaves the job of closing games to former Cub Sean Marshall and/or a proven veteran to be named later.

Short of Joey Votto and maybe Latos, no one injury will doom the Reds. But the trend from last year seems to have already carried over to 2012. And considering their manager, injuries, especially to pitchers, can’t be unexpected. That’s because…

Delusion: Dusty Baker is the right manager for the Reds

Reality: …their manager is notorious for mis-managing his pitchers. Well, and his washed-up veterans. Walt Jocketty took away some of Dusty’s toys by getting rid of guys like Ramon Hernandez and Edgar Renteria.  But Miguel Cairo lurks in the shadows (just as a backup, we swear!), and no viable Plan B for Scott Rolen exists.  I’m actually willing to give Dusty a pass on Madson’s injury (there had to be some reason nobody wanted to pay him last year), but if I’m Mat Latos, and I already have a history of shoulder injuries, I got traded to the wrong team, hombre.

But the biggest problem here is that Dusty is clearly set up to fail. As I said, Rolen is still there and there is no viable backup for him. Two of the Reds top prospects were sent to San Diego for Latos. The Reds seem to be going all-out now in order to prevent, or prepare for, Joey Votto leaving to L.A. after 2013. Baker is in the last year of his contract and either the Reds will make the playoffs and he’ll get renewed, or they will struggle and at the end of the year, if not earlier, Dusty will go back to ESPN. My money’s on the latter.

1^st place: Milwaukee Brewers

Delusion: The Brewers won’t miss Prince Fielder THAT much.

One of my favorite bad logos ever, especially when
you consider that it's basically a ripped off Notre Dame logo.
Cheer, cheer for old Motre Bame!

Reality: Let’s hear it for default! The Brewers take the top spot because I like their holes the most. Offensively though, the Brewers are really, REALLY grateful for loopholes. Losing Ryan Braun would have been devastating. As it is, Prince Fielder and Casey McGahee (I mean, the offensive TORNADO~! that is Casey McGahee) have turned into Aramis Ramirez and Mr. Electricity, Mat Gamel (seriously, that’s two Mat’s in this division. Enough already). So they upgraded at 3^rd base, and downgraded tremendously at 1^st. Gamel is unproven but hasn’t show much in the few cups of coffee he’s had at the MLB level. Ramirez is a solid bat but aging and not a difference-maker, if he ever was. Rickie Weeks can be a difference maker if he stays healthy (I bet somewhere, some Brewer blogger made that into a macro). Ditto Corey Hart. But the “other” proven slugger is gone now, and their best replacement was sent to Toronto for a guy who was just abysmal in the playoffs last year. I don’t care how much of a troublemaker Brett Lawrie was. That trade could haunt the Brew Crew for a long, long time.

Delusion: The pitching staff of the Brewers stacks up against any other NL team not named Philadelphia.

Reality: The pitching in Milwaukee is really their strong point this year. They boast Zack Greinke, Yovanii Gallardo, and Shawn Marcum up front, with Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford in the back end of the bullpen. What’s in the middle of those ends, though…isn’t so good. Any injuries (Mr. Marcum?) could sink this team. There’s no depth here and they raided the farm system just to get this far. I’m comfortable picking them this year, but this may look really stupid if the Brewers get some bad luck this year.

2 down, 4 to go. We’ll move out West next and take a look at the Astros new home in 2013, the AL West. I’m sure they’re just THRILLED to take their mediocrity out there.